Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 22, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 20, 2026 — +4.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$212.75 Published $257.43 Target $222.27 Window close $234.50 Peak
$204.00 – $216.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$212.75Published — price the day we called it
$257.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$222.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+4.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+10.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$222.27
last close inside the window, ended September 20, 2026
Peak price
$234.50
peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+21%
over the measurement window
Target price
$257.43
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$204.00 – $216.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$212.75
published June 22, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the clearest way to get exposure to the AI chip market because customers keep buying its products, the company makes strong profits, and it holds lots of cash. Near-term, this combination supports performance for the next few months, but heavy investor focus on AI and shifts within the sector raise the chance of price swings.

Primary drivers

  • Strong, wide demand from data-center customers for AI chips
  • Large cash reserves and healthy profits support stability
  • Consistent earnings separate NVIDIA from weaker peers
  • Heavy investor focus in the sector raises rotation risk

How it played out

NVDA: gains fell short of the target

Lyra published NVDA at $212.75 with expected growth of 21%. The thesis pointed to broad data-center chip demand, large cash reserves, healthy profits, consistent earnings, and the risk that heavy investor focus could bring sector rotation and price swings.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of $234.50 on September 4, a 10.2% gain. It stayed below the $257.43 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $222.27. The thesis partially played out, with a gain but no target hit.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and data-center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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