Track record · closed signal

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. (VIPS) — closed signal from August 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 11, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIPS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$16.23 Published $19.47 Target $19.85 Window close $21.08 Peak
$16.00 – $16.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$16.23Published — price the day we called it
$19.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$21.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$19.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 48 days.

Peak price
$21.08
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$19.85
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
48
Window
August 13, 2025 – November 11, 2025

The thesis — published August 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$19.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.00 – $16.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$16.23
published August 13, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Vipshop looks reasonably priced and interest from traders is positive. A low PEG of 0.38 and a top rating from one research firm before the next quarterly report point to room for gains. The recent average price is trending up and daily moves are calm, so buying small dips can make sense. Results are solid but not spectacular, and China news can bite. A firm push above $16.70 would likely lift confidence over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • A PEG of 0.38 hints the stock is cheap compared with its expected growth
  • Top analyst ranking ahead of earnings increases interest and potential demand
  • Recent average price is rising while day-to-day price swings remain limited
  • Improving mood around China online shopping firms could boost buying interest

How it played out

VIPS: target reached in 48 days

Lyra published VIPS at $16.23 on August 13, 2025, with expected growth of 20% and a target of $19.47. The thesis pointed to a PEG of 0.38, a top analyst ranking ahead of earnings, a rising recent average price, limited daily swings, and better mood around China online shopping firms.

Inside the window, VIPS rose past the target. It reached a peak of $21.08 on October 2, 2025, with a peak gain of 29.9%. The target was reached in 48 days. The stock ended the window at $19.85. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 14, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that VIPS had its Relative Strength Rating upgraded from 66 to 76. On August 20, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported another upgrade, from 79 to 87.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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