Track record · closed signal

Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) — closed signal from August 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 11, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

OBDC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.52 Published $14.27 Target $11.72 Window close $13.63 Peak
$12.61 – $12.88Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.52Published — price the day we called it
$14.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$11.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$13.63
peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$11.72
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 13, 2025 – November 11, 2025

The thesis — published August 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.27
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.61 – $12.88
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.52
published August 13, 2025
Confidence
92%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Blue Owl looks appealing for income with a near-term bounce possible. It just reported profit per share above expectations and has delivered strong double-digit returns for many quarters, which suggests steady earnings. Its $3B role tied to Meta's AI build keeps growth relevant. The price has cooled, offering a window near the range given. Investor mood is favorable, new loans are solid, and lending rates remain attractive.

Primary drivers

  • Recent profit beat and strong returns show earnings that can hold up well
  • $3B role in Meta's AI build links growth to a major, fast-growing project
  • Price cooled off, creating a potential entry while sellers look tired
  • Positive mood and steady flow of new loans support near-term results

How it played out

OBDC: target was not reached

Lyra published OBDC at $13.52 on 2025-08-13 with 12% expected growth and a $14.27 target. The thesis pointed to a recent profit beat, strong returns, a $3B role tied to Meta's artificial intelligence build, a cooled price, favorable investor mood, solid new loans, and attractive lending rates.

Inside the 2025-08-13 to 2025-11-11 window, OBDC peaked at $13.63 on 2025-09-05, a 0.8% gain. It stayed below the $14.27 target. It ended at $11.72. The thesis got a small early bounce, but the target was missed and the close was lower. It did not play out.

What happened during the window

On October 23, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Meta had announced a Blue Owl joint venture for the Hyperion data-center campus in Louisiana.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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