Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from June 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 17, 2026 — -23% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.75 – $18.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.51Published — price the day we called it

$21.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-23%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.26

last close inside the window, ended September 17, 2026

Peak price

$20.54

peak on July 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$21.66

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.75 – $18.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.51

published June 19, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The Trade Desk looks like a higher-risk rebound in ad technology. Recent news - the Publicis dispute being resolved, a CFO change, and a new Agoda data deal - reduces short-term friction and improves targeting. Strong liquidity and upbeat earnings help, but falling profits and weak technicals keep this a tactical, not fully confirmed, recovery.

Primary drivers

Publicis deal eases a recent business obstacle
Agoda tie gives more travel customer data
New finance leader may improve execution
Oversold price suggests a chance for a bounce

How it played out

TTD: rebound peaked below the target

Lyra published a higher-risk rebound thesis at $18.51, with expected growth of 17% and a target of $21.66. The thesis pointed to the resolved Publicis dispute, the Agoda data deal, a new finance leader, and an oversold price as reasons a short-term bounce was possible. Weak technicals and falling profits kept the recovery tactical.

The price peaked at $20.54 on July 13, a gain of 10.9%. It stayed below the target throughout the window. By September 17, it had fallen to $14.26. The rebound partially played out early, but the published target was missed and the signal ended below its publication price.

What happened during the window

On July 13, The Trade Desk appointed Penry Price to its board. On August 6, the company reported second-quarter results and said the quarter did not meet its own standard.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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