Track record · closed signal

EZCORP Inc (EZPW) — closed signal from June 19, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 17, 2026 — -0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EZPW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$31.72 Published $36.80 Target $31.64 Window close $36.63 Peak
$30.50 – $32.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$31.72Published — price the day we called it
$36.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$36.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-0.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+15.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$31.64
last close inside the window, ended September 17, 2026
Peak price
$36.63
peak on July 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$36.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$30.50 – $32.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$31.72
published June 19, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

EZCORP runs pawn shops and has steady sales from loans and merchandise. Business momentum and a fair valuation suggest earnings can keep surprising on the upside. Recent coverage has brought attention, but a director selling shares and lots of short interest can make the stock swing more. Price sits near the short-term trend, so conviction is cautious for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Pawn loans and resale sales give exposure to consumer lending outside banks
  • Recent results make the company's forecasts more believable
  • Increased media and research attention has raised investor awareness
  • Director share sale and heavy short positions can cause sharp moves

How it played out

EZPW: came close, but missed the target

Lyra published a cautious short-term thesis for 16% growth from $31.72 toward $36.80. The thesis pointed to pawn loans and resale sales, recent results, wider media and research attention, and the risk of sharp moves from a director's share sale and heavy short positions.

EZPW rose to $36.63 on July 6, a peak gain of 15.5%. It stayed below the $36.80 target and never reached it. By September 17, it had fallen to $31.64, close to the publication price. The thesis partially played out during the window, but the stated target was missed and the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, EZCORP reported third-quarter revenue of $418.7 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.48.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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