Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 17, 2026 — +4.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$210.69 Published $259.15 Target $219.34 Window close $234.50 Peak
$204.00 – $212.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$210.69Published — price the day we called it
$259.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$219.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+4.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$219.34
last close inside the window, ended September 17, 2026
Peak price
$234.50
peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+23%
over the measurement window
Target price
$259.15
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$204.00 – $212.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$210.69
published June 19, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the clearest large-cap pick for near-term AI infrastructure exposure. The company shows very strong sales growth, high profits, and a healthy balance sheet, and recent chip-sector headlines point to continued demand for AI chips. Short-term weakness signals and crowded investor positions limit upside, but price sits near its recent trend, making the setup measured.

Primary drivers

  • Growing AI data-center demand keeps NVIDIA's chips in high demand
  • Very strong profits and a solid balance sheet reduce downside risk
  • Chip-industry updates have strengthened near-term AI demand
  • Price is near its recent trend, so the stock is less stretched than peers

How it played out

NVDA: rose 11.3% at peak but missed the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 23% growth from $210.69 toward $259.15. The thesis pointed to rising data-center demand for artificial intelligence chips, strong profits and balance sheet, chip-industry updates, and a price near its recent trend. It also noted short-term weakness and crowded investor positions as limits on upside.

During the window, NVDA rose to a peak of $234.50 on September 4, a gain of 11.3%. It stayed below the $259.15 target and never reached it. The stock ended the window at $219.34. The direction was right, but the expected 23% gain did not play out. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and data-center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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