Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from August 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 12, 2025
Texas Instruments makes chips used across many products. After a sharp drop, the price looks ready to recover, and investor mood is strong. Big funds own about 88%, and its link to Apple building more in the U.S. adds support. Faster amplifier chips should see rising demand. Risks are extra inventory and slower company spending, but its many customer types and strong cash help. A 3 month move back toward recent average prices seems realistic.
Primary drivers
- Price looks beaten down, and overall investor mood is very positive
- Benefit from Apple adding more U.S. production that may boost chip orders
- Sells many types of analog chips across industries, spreading risk
- Owned largely by big funds, which can add stability to the stock
How it played out
TXN: target stayed out of reach
Lyra published TXN at $185.64 on 2025-08-12 with an 18% expected gain toward $217.12. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, very positive investor mood, possible support from Apple adding more U.S. production, broad analog-chip exposure across industries, and large fund ownership.
Inside the 2025-08-12 to 2025-11-10 window, TXN rose to $207.24 on 2025-08-22, a 11.6% peak gain. That stayed below the $217.12 target. It never got there. The stock ended the window at $160.58, below the publication price. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the close.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, Texas Instruments reported September-quarter earnings of $1.48 per share on $4.74 billion in revenue, and gave a December-quarter earnings forecast of $1.13 to $1.39 per share. On 2025-10-22, Barron's reported that TXN fell 5.6% after that forecast.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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