Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from June 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 17, 2026 — -5.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$368.03 Published $423.23 Target $347.33 Window close $384.48 Peak
$356.00 – $370.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$368.03Published — price the day we called it
$423.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$347.33Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-5.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$347.33
last close inside the window, ended September 17, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$423.23
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$356.00 – $370.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$368.03
published June 19, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet offers short-term exposure to search, YouTube, cloud services, and AI tools, spreading risk across several businesses rather than concentrating in chips. New Google-backed compute capacity tied to Anthropic could help cloud revenue. Regulatory concerns and weak technical signs reduce conviction, but earnings quality and nearby price support are constructive.

Primary drivers

  • Search, YouTube, cloud each earn money in different ways, reducing reliance on one area
  • New Google-backed computing capacity linked to Anthropic could accelerate cloud revenue
  • A strong balance sheet provides flexibility and cushions downside risk
  • Price sitting near short-term trend support makes a cautious rebound more likely

How it played out

GOOGL: the 15% growth thesis missed its target

On June 19, Lyra published a short-term thesis at $368.03 and expected 15% growth to $423.23. The thesis pointed to revenue from Search, YouTube and cloud, Google-backed computing capacity linked to Anthropic, balance-sheet flexibility, and price support near the short-term trend.

The price rose to a window peak of $384.48 on August 5, a 4.5% gain, but never reached the target. It ended the window at $347.33 on September 17. The early rise offered limited support for the rebound case, but the expected 15% growth did not play out. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 22, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24%. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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