Track record · closed signal

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) — closed signal from June 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 16, 2026 — -3.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$13.29 – $13.88Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.97Published — price the day we called it

$15.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-3.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.54

last close inside the window, ended September 16, 2026

Peak price

$15.08

peak on July 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.25

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$13.29 – $13.88

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.97

published June 18, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Valley National looks like a way to get regional-bank exposure while earnings are getting better and the stock trades at a reasonable price. A recent negative article highlights ongoing credit, funding, and commercial property risks. Trading interest from short sellers can make price swings larger, so momentum is present but not strong.

Primary drivers

Local bank profits are improving, showing business progress
Stock price looks reasonable, leaving room for upside
Negative news keeps credit and funding risks in view
Price momentum exists but remains modest and cautious

How it played out

VLY: rose 7.9% but missed the target

Lyra published VLY at $13.97 with an expected 10% gain. The thesis pointed to improving local bank profits and a reasonable valuation as support for upside. It also kept credit and funding risks in view, and described price momentum as modest and cautious.

Inside the window, VLY reached a peak of $15.08 on July 16, a 7.9% gain. That peak stayed below the $15.25 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $13.54. The thesis partly played out because the price rose toward the target, but it did not deliver the expected 10% gain.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2026, Valley National Bancorp reported second-quarter net income of $170.9 million, or $0.29 per diluted share. On September 9, 2026, Valley Bank announced the launch of Valley Foundry, a technology and innovation unit.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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