Track record · closed signal

American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) — closed signal from June 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 16, 2026 — -31.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMSC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$40.51 Published $46.99 Target $27.81 Window close $45.43 Peak
$38.00 – $41.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$40.51Published — price the day we called it
$46.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$45.43Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$27.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-31.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$27.81
last close inside the window, ended September 16, 2026
Peak price
$45.43
peak on June 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$46.99
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$38.00 – $41.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$40.51
published June 18, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

American Superconductor is positioned to benefit from stronger power grids, more renewable energy, and defense demand. Recent news of record yearly sales supports growth, but a company insider sale, very light trading, and big price swings make confidence limited. The finances look solid, so the setup is cautious rather than clearly favorable in the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Demand for stronger power grids and higher electricity needs
  • Record annual sales show business momentum
  • Healthy balance sheet lowers need for new borrowing
  • Large price swings and thin trading mean extra caution

How it played out

AMSC: target missed after a 12.1% peak gain

Lyra published a cautious short-term thesis for 16% growth from $40.51 toward $46.99. The thesis pointed to stronger power grids, rising electricity needs, renewable energy and defense demand, record annual sales, and a healthy balance sheet. It also flagged thin trading, large price swings, and an insider sale.

The price peaked at $45.43 on June 22, a 12.1% gain, but never reached the $46.99 target. It ended the window at $27.81 on September 16, below both the publication price and entry zone. The thesis partially played out early, then missed its stated objective. The target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, AMSC reported quarterly revenue of $94.1 million, up 30% from the prior-year period, and total orders above $130 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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