Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from June 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 16, 2026 — -4.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$359.21 Published $420.28 Target $342.87 Window close $384.48 Peak
$345.00 – $360.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$359.21Published — price the day we called it
$420.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$342.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-4.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$342.87
last close inside the window, ended September 16, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$420.28
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$345.00 – $360.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$359.21
published June 18, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet looks poised to rebound because its core businesses-search, YouTube, cloud, and AI-powered advertising-are still strong and the company generates a lot of cash. Advertisers are using new predictive ad tools that help turn interest into sales, which supports revenue. The stock shows oversold price action and good trading liquidity, though regulation and AI-search concerns are notable risks.

Primary drivers

  • Search, YouTube, cloud, and AI ads remain reliable revenue sources
  • Advertisers are adopting predictive ad tools that help drive sales
  • High cash flow provides a buffer during market swings
  • Oversold price behavior improves the odds of a rebound

How it played out

GOOGL: the thesis partially played out

On June 18, Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis from $359.21, with 17% expected growth and a $420.28 target. The thesis pointed to Search, YouTube, cloud, advertising tools powered by artificial intelligence, cash flow, and oversold price behavior. It also cited regulation and changes in search as risks.

GOOGL rose to a $384.48 peak on August 5, a 7% gain. It never reached the $420.28 target. By September 16, it had fallen to $342.87, below the publication price and the entry zone. The rebound appeared, but it was smaller than expected and did not hold. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 22, Alphabet reported that second-quarter revenue grew 24% year over year. It also reported 17% growth in Search and Other revenue, 13% growth in YouTube advertising revenue, and 82% growth in Cloud revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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