Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 16, 2026 — +3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$207.61 Published $249.13 Target $213.90 Window close $234.50 Peak
$198.00 – $208.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$207.61Published — price the day we called it
$249.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$213.90Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 65% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$213.90
last close inside the window, ended September 16, 2026
Peak price
$234.50
peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$249.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$198.00 – $208.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$207.61
published June 18, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a top short-term AI infrastructure pick because data centers keep buying its chips, networking, and software. A recent large deployment order shows real demand. Financial strength and high profits back the story, but many investors already own the stock, insiders have sold, and short-term price pressure means expectations should be cautious.

Primary drivers

  • Strong chip demand from big data-center buildouts
  • Large HIVE Digital order shows real customer demand
  • High profit margins and a strong balance sheet
  • Recent sell-off may allow a tactical rebound opportunity

How it played out

NVDA: rose 13%, but missed the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $207.61, with an entry zone of $198 to $208, 20% expected growth, and a $249.13 target. The thesis pointed to strong chip demand from data-center buildouts, a large HIVE Digital order, high profit margins, a strong balance sheet, and the chance of a tactical rebound after a recent sell-off.

The stock peaked at $234.50 on September 4, a 13% gain, but it stayed below the $249.13 target. It ended the window at $213.90 on September 16. The price rose from publication, but the expected 20% gain did not play out. The thesis only partially played out.

What happened during the window

On August 26, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% from the previous quarter and 106% from a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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