Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from June 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 15, 2026 — +27.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$134.96 Published $157.90 Target $172.56 Window close $188.37 Peak
$128.00 – $136.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$134.96Published — price the day we called it
$157.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$188.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$172.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 48 days.

At window close
+27.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+39.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$172.56
last close inside the window, ended September 15, 2026
Peak price
$188.37
peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
48

The thesis — published June 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$157.90
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$128.00 – $136.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$134.96
published June 17, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is well positioned in AI software, earns healthy margins, and has a very strong cash position, which supports operating through ups and downs. Recent legal losses and a contract exit in Europe raise the chance of lost business there. Price sensitivity and headline risk limit strong conviction despite rebound potential near support.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for AI software from government and business buyers
  • A strong cash position helps the company handle volatility
  • European legal and contract news raises the chance of lost deals
  • High valuation means results must stay strong to justify the price

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 48 days

Lyra published the PLTR thesis at $134.96 and expected 17% growth. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence software, healthy margins, and a strong cash position. It also cited European legal and contract risks, price sensitivity, and a high valuation as limits on conviction.

The stock reached the $157.90 target in 48 days. It later peaked at $188.37 on August 28, a 39.6% gain. PLTR ended the window at $172.56, still above the target. The thesis played out and the price exceeded the published expectation.

What happened during the window

On August 3, 2026, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year over year. It also raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to 82% growth.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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