Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from August 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 12, 2025
This looks like a typical bounce-back setup for a regional bank. The stock has been pushed down hard, but investor mood is improving and the company's basics look steady. Recent write-ups say some US banks trade for less than they are worth, which supports the value story. While deposit and loan costs are worth watching, deposits look steady. Expect a quiet few months, then a gradual recovery as short-term pressure fades.
Primary drivers
- Shares dropped too far; investor mood is improving, setting up a rebound.
- Finances look sound, and the share price appears reasonable for value.
- Reports say some banks trade below worth, drawing more interest.
- What the bank pays to raise funds may ease, helping profits.
How it played out
ONB: the thesis partially played out
Lyra published ONB at 20.62 on August 12, 2025, with an expected 16% short-term move. The thesis pointed to a bounce-back setup for a regional bank after a hard selloff. It also pointed to improving investor mood, steady basics, reasonable value, stable deposits, and the chance that funding costs may ease.
Inside the window, ONB rose to 23.17 on September 5, 2025. That was a 12.4% peak gain, but it stayed below the 23.63 target. It never got there. By November 10, 2025, the stock ended at 20.9. The thesis partially played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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