Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from June 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 15, 2026 — -5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.60 – $19.60Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.71Published — price the day we called it

$22.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$18.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$18.64

last close inside the window, ended September 15, 2026

Peak price

$22.19

peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$22.86

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.60 – $19.60

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.71

published June 17, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

AG offers a strong way to benefit if silver prices move up because it makes more money when metals rise and its balance sheet is healthier than many smaller miners. However, the stock has already moved up with the sector and a big one-day drop in a miner fund shows gains can flip to losses quickly. Governance noise eased after AGM, but price swings mean choices should be selective.

Primary drivers

Its business gains extra upside when silver prices go up
A stronger balance sheet helps the company handle tough times
Recent AGM approval lowers short-term company uncertainty
Large price swings in the sector mean tighter risk control

How it played out

AG: rose 12.6% but missed the target

Lyra published AG at $19.71 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to added upside when silver prices rose, a stronger balance sheet, reduced uncertainty after the AGM, and the risk posed by large price swings in the sector.

AG reached its window peak of $22.19 on August 28, 2026, a gain of 12.6%. The peak stayed below the $22.86 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $18.64. The thesis partially played out, but the expected growth did not.

What happened during the window

On July 7, 2026, First Majestic announced an agreement to sell the San Martin Silver Mine for total proceeds of $90 million. On July 30, 2026, the company reported that second-quarter silver production rose 3% and gold production rose 2% from the same quarter a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AG signals