Track record · closed signal

360 Finance Inc (QFIN) — closed signal from June 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 15, 2026 — -44.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

QFIN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$13.12 – $13.84Entry zone — fair-value band

$14.48Published — price the day we called it

$15.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$15.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$8.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-44.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$8.05

last close inside the window, ended September 15, 2026

Peak price

$15.68

peak on July 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$15.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$13.12 – $13.84

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$14.48

published June 17, 2026

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

QFIN looks cheap and showed a sharp jump in profits that pushed the stock higher recently. That creates a story where the market could revalue the company if the positive news keeps up. However, reported sales and profit trends have been uneven, trading is thin, and fast changes in China's fintech rules could quickly reverse sentiment. Near-term conviction is low.

Primary drivers

Recent sharp profit news supports a cheap-asset rebound case
Low current price could allow a re-rating if confidence returns
Solid liquidity gives some protection on drops
China fintech rules and low volume make the situation risky

How it played out

QFIN: peaked at 15.68, ended at 8.05

Lyra published QFIN at 14.48 with 12% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to recent profit news, a low valuation that could support a re-rating, and solid liquidity. It also flagged uneven sales and profit trends, thin trading, and changing Chinese fintech rules as risks.

The stock rose to a 15.68 peak on July 1, 2026, for an 8.3% peak gain. That peak was above the published 15.38 target, although the outcome did not record the target as reached. It then ended the window at 8.05 on September 15, 2026. The rebound thesis played out briefly, but the expected 12% growth did not hold through the close.

What happened during the window

On August 25, 2026, Qfin reported second-quarter total net revenue of RMB3,566.6 million and net income of RMB401.4 million. It also declared a semi-annual dividend.

Qfin Holdings Announces Second Quarter and Interim 2026 Unaudited Financial Results and Declares Semi-Annual Dividend

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All QFIN signals