Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from June 16, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 14, 2026 — +2.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$11.00 – $11.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$11.54Published — price the day we called it

$13.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$11.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 66 days.

At window close

+2.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$11.85

last close inside the window, ended September 14, 2026

Peak price

$14.08

peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$13.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$11.00 – $11.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$11.54

published June 16, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox Gold offers a cleaner way to own gold exposure with growing operations, decent profit margins, and a meaningful boost from the Orla merger. The merger makes the company noticeably bigger but adds risk as the businesses combine. Production has been uneven. The stock is slightly below its short-term trend with active buying, so a near-term rebound is possible if gold prices stay firm.

Primary drivers

Merger makes the company significantly larger
Gold prices and investor interest support the business
Stock is not as overbought as many peers
Active buying helps a near-term rebound if execution steadies

How it played out

EQX: target reached in 66 days

On June 16, Lyra published a short-term thesis expecting 16% growth from $11.54. It expected a near-term rebound if gold prices stayed firm and execution steadied. The thesis pointed to a larger company after the Orla merger, support from gold prices and investor interest, less overbought trading than peers, and active buying.

Within the window, EQX reached the $13.38 target in 66 days. It later peaked at $14.08 on August 25, for a 22.1% gain, then ended at $11.85. The published target was reached, so the thesis played out, although the price gave back much of its gain by the end.

What happened during the window

On July 31, 2026, Equinox Gold and Orla Mining completed their business combination. On August 5, Equinox Gold reported its second-quarter results and raised its 2026 production guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EQX signals