Track record · closed signal

Trade Desk Inc (TTD) — closed signal from June 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 14, 2026 — -22.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TTD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.30 – $19.60Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.29Published — price the day we called it

$22.37Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-22.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.97

last close inside the window, ended September 14, 2026

Peak price

$20.54

peak on July 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$22.37

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.30 – $19.60

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.29

published June 16, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Trade Desk looks like a short-term rebound candidate, not a clear leader yet. It fell below recent trend lines, but the company has cash and past earnings that limit balance-sheet risk. Positive developments-client dispute easing, leadership changes, and a travel-data deal-help. Slower ad spending means the next 0-3 months are cautiously hopeful rather than certain.

Primary drivers

Client dispute eased, reducing billing risk
Travel data deal adds useful audience info
New leadership could improve execution
Strong balance sheet limits financial stress

How it played out

TTD: rebound thesis missed its target

Lyra published TTD as a short-term rebound candidate at $19.29, with expected growth of 16% and a $22.37 target. The thesis pointed to an easing client dispute, a travel-data deal, leadership changes, and a strong balance sheet. It also noted slower ad spending and stopped short of calling TTD a clear leader.

The price peaked at $20.54 on July 13, a gain of 6.5%. It remained below the target throughout the window and ended at $14.97 on September 14. The rebound thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On August 6, The Trade Desk reported its second-quarter 2026 financial results. On August 27, it introduced Kokai Zuma, a new platform release with artificial intelligence features and simplified measurement.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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