Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from June 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 14, 2026 — -2.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.40 – $19.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.28Published — price the day we called it

$23.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$18.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$18.80

last close inside the window, ended September 14, 2026

Peak price

$22.19

peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$23.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.40 – $19.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.28

published June 16, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic is a high-risk, high-reward silver miner with unusually good trading liquidity and improving operations. Recent governance decisions add stability, but a big drop in a silver-miner ETF shows gains can reverse quickly because the stock swings with metal prices. The short-term setup looks appealing if metals stay firm and price holds nearby support.

Primary drivers

Upside if silver prices move higher in a firm metals market
Easier to trade than many miners due to stronger liquidity
Board and governance updates reduce short-term uncertainty
ETF-related volatility shows both leverage and downside risk

How it played out

AG: rose 15.1% but missed the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $19.28, with 20% expected growth and a $23.13 target. The thesis pointed to higher silver prices, strong trading liquidity, governance updates, and the volatility seen in a silver-miner fund. It also depended on metals staying firm and the price holding nearby support.

AG reached its window peak of $22.19 on August 28, a 15.1% gain. The target was never reached. By September 14, the stock had fallen to $18.80, below its publication price and within the original $18.40 to $19.40 entry zone. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose toward the target, but the full expected gain did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On July 8, 2026, First Majestic reported second-quarter production and updated its 2026 production and cost guidance. On July 30, 2026, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $415.5 million and net earnings of $109.4 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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