QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) — closed signal from August 12, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 76 days.
The thesis — published August 12, 2025
Qualcomm looks like a strong company that may be temporarily out of favor, creating a chance for a bounce. A respected stock screen gave it a 93% score, and news points to possible new money from AI chips in China and a new phone using its improved chips. Phone sales can be choppy and global politics can bite, but growth in cars and connected devices helps. Expect a few months of stabilizing, then a recovery.
Primary drivers
- Short-term weakness may offer a bounce opportunity in a solid business.
- Strong 93% score from a respected screening model supports quality.
- Reports of China AI chip deals could add revenue without heavy costs.
- Expanding in cars and smart devices spreads risk beyond phones.
How it played out
QCOM: target reached in 76 days
Lyra published QCOM at $148.14 on 2025-08-12 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis said the stock looked temporarily out of favor and could bounce over a short-term window. It pointed to a 93% screen score, possible revenue from artificial intelligence chips in China, a new phone using improved chips, and growth in cars and connected devices.
Inside the window, QCOM rose past the $175.86 target. It peaked at $204.90 on 2025-10-27, with a peak gain of 38.3%, and reached the target in 76 days. It ended at $170.70 on 2025-11-10. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-09-24, Qualcomm announced the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 for flagship Android devices. On 2025-11-05, Android Central reported Qualcomm's fiscal Q4 2025 revenue of $11.3 billion and cited growth in handsets, automotive, and IoT. These were company updates during the window, not stated causes of the price move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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