Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from June 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 13, 2026 — +7.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$10.80 – $11.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$11.50Published — price the day we called it

$13.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 67 days.

At window close

+7.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.40

last close inside the window, ended September 13, 2026

Peak price

$14.08

peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 15, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$13.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$10.80 – $11.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$11.50

published June 15, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox is a higher-risk idea focused on combining with Orla to become a bigger producer. That merger gives a clearer story for near-term attention and some improving profitability, but mixed recent results, the challenge of merging companies, and sensitivity to gold prices make it more speculative than cleaner peer miners. Overall upside looks positive but cautious.

Primary drivers

Orla merger could increase size and production clarity
Consolidation news gives a clear near-term story to follow
Profitability is improving, supporting the higher-risk case
Integration challenges and gold-price swings limit conviction

How it played out

EQX: target reached in 67 days

Lyra published EQX at $11.50 with expected growth of 14% and a $13.10 target. The thesis pointed to the planned Orla combination, clearer production scale, near-term attention from consolidation news, and improving profitability. It also noted integration challenges and sensitivity to gold prices.

EQX reached the target in 67 days. It rose to $14.08 on August 25, a peak gain of 22.5%, then ended the window at $12.40. The peak was above the published target, though the closing price was below it. The thesis played out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 31, 2026, Equinox Gold completed its business combination with Orla Mining. On August 5, 2026, the company approved a 50% increase to its cash dividend.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EQX signals