Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from June 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 13, 2026 — +7.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$11.50 Published $13.10 Target $12.40 Window close $14.08 Peak
$10.80 – $11.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$11.50Published — price the day we called it
$13.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 67 days.

At window close
+7.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+22.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$12.40
last close inside the window, ended September 13, 2026
Peak price
$14.08
peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
67

The thesis — published June 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.10
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.80 – $11.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$11.50
published June 15, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox is a higher-risk idea focused on combining with Orla to become a bigger producer. That merger gives a clearer story for near-term attention and some improving profitability, but mixed recent results, the challenge of merging companies, and sensitivity to gold prices make it more speculative than cleaner peer miners. Overall upside looks positive but cautious.

Primary drivers

  • Orla merger could increase size and production clarity
  • Consolidation news gives a clear near-term story to follow
  • Profitability is improving, supporting the higher-risk case
  • Integration challenges and gold-price swings limit conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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