Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 13, 2026 — +4.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$202.00 – $212.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$209.45Published — price the day we called it

$255.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$218.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$218.29

last close inside the window, ended September 13, 2026

Peak price

$234.50

peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 15, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$255.53

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$202.00 – $212.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$209.45

published June 15, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is seen as a strong AI infrastructure company that pulled back in price. Large data-center demand, high profit margins, and strong cash reserves make the business resilient. A recent hire in Washington could reduce export-control uncertainty. Short-term momentum is unclear, but oversold conditions and positive sentiment support a near-term rebound case.

Primary drivers

Leads AI accelerator market driven by big data-center demand
Washington hire could lower export-control and regulatory risk
High margins and cash flow help weather semiconductor downturns
Oversold price action makes the pullback cleaner if selling eases

How it played out

NVDA: rebound came, but the target was not reached

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis at $209.45, with 22% expected growth and a $255.53 target. The thesis pointed to leadership in artificial intelligence accelerators, large data-center demand, high margins and cash flow, a Washington hire that could reduce export-control risk, and oversold price action. It also said short-term momentum was unclear.

Inside the window, NVDA reached its $234.50 peak on September 4, a 12% gain. The price never reached the $255.53 target. It ended at $218.29 on September 13, above the publication price but below both the peak and target. The thesis partially played out: the rebound happened, but the expected growth did not.

What happened during the window

On August 10, NVIDIA announced partnerships to establish compute-financing platforms intended to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital. On August 26, NVIDIA and AWS announced plans to deploy 2 million additional NVIDIA GPUs.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals