Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 13, 2026 — +4.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$209.45 Published $255.53 Target $218.29 Window close $234.50 Peak
$202.00 – $212.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$209.45Published — price the day we called it
$255.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$218.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+4.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$218.29
last close inside the window, ended September 13, 2026
Peak price
$234.50
peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$255.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$202.00 – $212.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$209.45
published June 15, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is seen as a strong AI infrastructure company that pulled back in price. Large data-center demand, high profit margins, and strong cash reserves make the business resilient. A recent hire in Washington could reduce export-control uncertainty. Short-term momentum is unclear, but oversold conditions and positive sentiment support a near-term rebound case.

Primary drivers

  • Leads AI accelerator market driven by big data-center demand
  • Washington hire could lower export-control and regulatory risk
  • High margins and cash flow help weather semiconductor downturns
  • Oversold price action makes the pullback cleaner if selling eases

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals