Blackstone Inc. (BX) — closed signal from August 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 10, 2025 — -15.6% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 12, 2025
Blackstone looks temporarily out of favor, which can set up a bounce. Recent news showed Q2 sales up 43% compared to last year and returns near 19.9%, showing its fee business is sturdy. The price slide appears to be slowing and the recent average price is leveling off, which often comes before a recovery. Shares are not cheap, but steady new money and deal exits could lift the stock over the next 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Price looks beaten down, and the recent average price is starting to level off
- Q2 results topped expectations, with sales up 43% compared to last year
- Returns near 19.9% suggest an efficient, high-quality business with durability
- Fresh investor money and asset sales can lift fees and cash flow in the near term
How it played out
BX: target missed after a partial rise
Lyra published BX at 170.92 on 2025-08-12 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, a recent average price starting to level off, Q2 sales up 43% compared to last year, returns near 19.9%, fresh investor money, and asset sales.
Inside the window, BX rose to 188.42 on 2025-09-18, a 10.2% peak gain. It stayed below the 196.53 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-11-10, it ended at 144.30. The thesis partly played out, then failed to hold.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, Blackstone and TPG announced an agreement to buy Hologic in a transaction valued at up to $18.3 billion. The deal terms included $76 per share in cash and up to $3 per share in contingent value rights.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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