Blackstone Inc. (BX) — closed signal from August 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 12, 2025
Blackstone looks temporarily out of favor, which can set up a bounce. Recent news showed Q2 sales up 43% compared to last year and returns near 19.9%, showing its fee business is sturdy. The price slide appears to be slowing and the recent average price is leveling off, which often comes before a recovery. Shares are not cheap, but steady new money and deal exits could lift the stock over the next 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Price looks beaten down, and the recent average price is starting to level off
- Q2 results topped expectations, with sales up 43% compared to last year
- Returns near 19.9% suggest an efficient, high-quality business with durability
- Fresh investor money and asset sales can lift fees and cash flow in the near term
How it played out
BX: target missed after a partial rise
Lyra published BX at 170.92 on 2025-08-12 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, a recent average price starting to level off, Q2 sales up 43% compared to last year, returns near 19.9%, fresh investor money, and asset sales.
Inside the window, BX rose to 188.42 on 2025-09-18, a 10.2% peak gain. It stayed below the 196.53 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-11-10, it ended at 144.30. The thesis partly played out, then failed to hold.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, Blackstone and TPG announced an agreement to buy Hologic in a transaction valued at up to $18.3 billion. The deal terms included $76 per share in cash and up to $3 per share in contingent value rights.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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