Track record · closed signal

Equinox Gold Corp (EQX) — closed signal from June 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 10, 2026 — +18.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EQX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$9.60 – $10.35Entry zone — fair-value band

$10.27Published — price the day we called it

$12.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 5 days.

At window close

+18.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+37.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.20

last close inside the window, ended September 10, 2026

Peak price

$14.08

peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$12.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$9.60 – $10.35

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$10.27

published June 12, 2026

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Equinox Gold is a higher-risk way to benefit if gold prices rally. The proposed ORLA-EQX deal could increase the companys size and production, which might help earnings if integration goes well. However, earnings are jumpy and merging operations carries meaningful execution risk, so this is a less clean opportunity than some peers.

Primary drivers

Deal could make the company bigger and more productive
Company benefits when gold prices rise or investors seek safer assets
Price pullback creates a more attractive short-term opportunity
Merger execution and earnings swings increase uncertainty

How it played out

EQX: target reached in 5 days

The thesis expected a 17% short-term rise from $10.27 toward $12.02. It pointed to the proposed ORLA-EQX deal as a way to increase Equinox Gold's size and production, and to possible support from higher gold prices and the recent pullback. It also identified merger execution and uneven earnings as risks.

EQX reached the $12.02 target in 5 days. It later peaked at $14.08 on August 25, a 37.1% gain inside the window, then ended at $12.20 on September 10. The closing price remained above the target. The thesis played out, and the market move exceeded the published expectation.

What happened during the window

On July 31, 2026, Equinox Gold and Orla Mining reported that they had completed their business combination. On August 5, 2026, Equinox Gold reported second-quarter results and raised its 2026 production guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EQX signals