Track record · closed signal

First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) — closed signal from June 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 10, 2026 — +18.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.90 – $17.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$16.97Published — price the day we called it

$19.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$20.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 3 days.

At window close

+18.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+30.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$20.15

last close inside the window, ended September 10, 2026

Peak price

$22.19

peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$19.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.90 – $17.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$16.97

published June 12, 2026

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

First Majestic gives a way to benefit if silver prices rise, but recent updates were about shareholder matters, not a new business improvement. The company has enough financial flexibility to stay through tough times and could bounce if the silver market steadies. However, weak chart signals and patchy earnings make this more speculative over the next few months compared with cleaner gold peers.

Primary drivers

Exposure to rising silver prices could boost revenue
Strong balance sheet helps the company weather storms
Recent sector sell-off raises the chance of a rebound
Uneven earnings make conviction cautious

How it played out

AG: target reached in 3 days

On June 12, Lyra expected AG to rise 15% from 16.97 toward 19.52. The thesis pointed to exposure to rising silver prices, a strong balance sheet, and the chance of a rebound after a sector sell-off. Uneven earnings kept conviction cautious.

AG reached the target in 3 days. It later peaked at 22.19 on August 28, a gain of 30.8%. The shares ended the window at 20.15, still above the target and the publication price. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On July 7, First Majestic announced an agreement to sell the San Martin Silver Mine for US$90 million. On July 30, the company reported second-quarter revenue of US$415.5 million, up 57% from the prior-year quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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