Track record · closed signal

Flywire Corp (FLYW) — closed signal from June 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 10, 2026 — +19.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FLYW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.83 Published $17.05 Target $17.75 Window close $19.73 Peak
$14.10 – $15.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.83Published — price the day we called it
$17.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$17.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 13 days.

At window close
+19.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+33%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$17.75
last close inside the window, ended September 10, 2026
Peak price
$19.73
peak on August 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
13

The thesis — published June 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$17.05
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$14.10 – $15.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.83
published June 12, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Flywire is a small payments-software company with solid growth and a strong cash position that reduces financing worry. A recent ranking update could improve short-term attention, but a company insider selling shares, an inconsistent profit record, and light trading make the situation fragile. Recovery is possible in the next few months if software spending picks up, but proof is limited.

Primary drivers

  • Growth in cross-border payments should boost sales
  • Strong cash resources reduce the need for outside funding
  • A recent favorable ranking increases short-term visibility
  • Insider sale and low trading activity weaken conviction

How it played out

FLYW: target reached in 13 days

Lyra published FLYW at $14.83 with a 15% expected gain and a $17.05 target. The thesis pointed to growth in cross-border payments, strong cash resources, and favorable ranking visibility. It also flagged an insider sale, low trading activity, and an inconsistent profit record as risks.

The price reached the $17.05 target in 13 days. It later peaked at $19.73 on August 24, a 33% gain, and ended the window at $17.75. The thesis played out: the target was reached quickly, the peak moved above it, and the closing price remained above it.

What happened during the window

On August 4, 2026, Flywire reported second-quarter revenue of $167.7 million, up 27.2% year over year, and total payment volume of $8.2 billion, up 38.2%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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