Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks (ANET) — closed signal from June 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 10, 2026 — +18.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$160.08 Published $185.69 Target $188.99 Window close $214.89 Peak
$151.00 – $162.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$160.08Published — price the day we called it
$185.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$214.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$188.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

At window close
+18.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+34.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$188.99
last close inside the window, ended September 10, 2026
Peak price
$214.89
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
27

The thesis — published June 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$185.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$151.00 – $162.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$160.08
published June 12, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arista sells the networking gear that helps cloud and AI systems run faster. New product announcements and reports of limited supply show clear customer demand but also raise the chance of delivery delays and squeezed profit margins. The stock could bounce after a recent drop, yet its high valuation and insider selling keep the short-term case cautious.

Primary drivers

  • New AI-focused products make future sales easier to predict
  • No debt reduces the risk of financial problems
  • Big cloud customers keep steady demand for networking gear
  • Supply shortages could slow deliveries and hurt margins

How it played out

ANET: target reached in 27 days

Lyra published a short-term case for 16% growth from $160.08. The thesis pointed to new products for artificial intelligence systems, steady demand from large cloud customers, and the lack of debt. It also cited supply shortages, possible delivery delays, pressure on margins, a high valuation, and insider selling as risks.

The market reached the $185.69 target in 27 days. ANET later peaked at $214.89 on August 5, a 34.2% gain. It ended the window at $188.99, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On August 4, 2026, Arista reported second-quarter revenue of $3.036 billion, up 37.7% from the second quarter of 2025. It also reported diluted earnings per share of $0.95.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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