Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 12, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 10, 2026 — +7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$195.00 – $207.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$204.04Published — price the day we called it

$248.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$218.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$218.36

last close inside the window, ended September 10, 2026

Peak price

$234.50

peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$248.92

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$195.00 – $207.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$204.04

published June 12, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a leader in the hardware that powers AI. A recent drop in price looks tactical, and partnership news shows continued big demand for data-center GPUs. Profits and cash on hand make the company resilient. Because many investors already own the stock and export rules and selling add risk, careful pricing is preferred over chasing a quick bounce.

Primary drivers

Partnerships keep demand high for large data-center GPU orders
Very strong profit margins justify a premium price
Large cash reserves and low debt provide balance-sheet protection
Recent pullback gives a clearer, lower-cost entry opportunity

How it played out

NVDA: rose 14.9%, but never reached the target

Lyra published NVDA at $204.04 with expected growth of 22% and a target of $248.92. The thesis pointed to demand for large data-center GPU orders, strong profit margins, cash reserves, low debt, and the recent pullback as an entry opportunity. It also cited export rules and selling as risks.

The price rose to $234.50 on September 4, a peak gain of 14.9%. It stayed below the target. NVDA ended the window on September 10 at $218.36. The thesis partially played out, but the expected growth did not arrive within the window.

What happened during the window

On August 26, 2026, NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and data-center revenue of $89.0 billion. On September 9, 2026, the company announced plans with Australian partners for infrastructure capacity of up to 2 gigawatts by 2027.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals