Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from June 12, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 10, 2026 — -6.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$357.20 Published $421.50 Target $332.60 Window close $384.48 Peak
$345.00 – $362.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$357.20Published — price the day we called it
$421.50Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$332.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 42% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$332.60
last close inside the window, ended September 10, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$421.50
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$345.00 – $362.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$357.20
published June 12, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet looks positioned to recover after a recent drop because its business shows real momentum, not just stock-market relief. Strong cloud sales and clearer ways to make money from AI back the rebound. Its core ad businesses and platforms still generate cash. Still, negative price trends, regulatory scrutiny, and high expectations mean entry timing should be cautious.

Primary drivers

  • Google Cloud growth helping revenue from AI features
  • Search and YouTube keep generating steady cash flow
  • Price weakness improves the potential payout versus risk
  • A large cash balance limits how far the company can fall

How it played out

GOOGL: the rebound thesis missed its target

Lyra published an 18% short-term rebound thesis from a price of $357.20. The thesis pointed to cloud growth and revenue from artificial intelligence features, steady cash flow from Search and YouTube, price weakness, and a large cash balance. It also noted negative price trends, regulatory scrutiny, and high expectations.

GOOGL rose to a peak of $384.48 on August 5, a gain of 7.6%. The $421.50 target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $332.60, below its publication price. The rebound appeared for part of the window, but the full thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported that second-quarter revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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