Track record · closed signal

EZCORP Inc (EZPW) — closed signal from June 11, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 9, 2026 — +7.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EZPW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$30.76 Published $37.21 Target $33.07 Window close $36.63 Peak
$29.50 – $31.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$30.76Published — price the day we called it
$37.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$36.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$33.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+7.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+19.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$33.07
last close inside the window, ended September 9, 2026
Peak price
$36.63
peak on July 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+21%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$29.50 – $31.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$30.76
published June 11, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

EZCORP runs pawn stores and has steady demand for small loans and resale goods. Earnings have been stronger than typical for a small financial company, and a recent favorable ranking helped the outlook. A past sharp share rise means some selling could occur. The recent slide looks like a short-term rebound chance, but light trading reduces certainty.

Primary drivers

  • Consistent demand for pawn loans and resale goods
  • Earnings frequently beat expectations, aiding momentum
  • Relatively clean balance sheet versus small-cap peers
  • Favorable ranking helps sentiment despite profit-taking risk

How it played out

EZPW: rose 19.1% but missed the target

Lyra published the EZPW thesis at $30.76 and called for 21% growth to $37.21. The thesis pointed to steady demand for pawn loans and resale goods, frequent earnings beats, a relatively clean balance sheet, and a favorable ranking. It also noted profit-taking risk and light trading.

The shares peaked at $36.63 on July 6, a 19.1% gain. That stayed below the $37.21 target, so the target was never reached. The price ended the window at $33.07 on September 9. The thesis partially played out. The stock approached the expected rise, but it did not deliver the published 21% gain.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, EZCORP reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $418.7 million, up 35%, and diluted earnings per share of $0.48, up 41%. It also reported that pawn loans outstanding rose 33% to $387.2 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EZPW signals