Track record · closed signal

Dell Technologies Inc (DELL) — closed signal from June 11, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 9, 2026 — +36.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

DELL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$392.07 Published $461.88 Target $535.25 Window close $562.99 Peak
$363.80 – $393.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$392.07Published — price the day we called it
$461.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$562.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$535.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

At window close
+36.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+43.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$535.25
last close inside the window, ended September 9, 2026
Peak price
$562.99
peak on September 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
33

The thesis — published June 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$461.88
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$363.80 – $393.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$392.07
published June 11, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Dell is benefiting from growing demand for AI-focused servers and cloud infrastructure, and recent news shows expanding cloud work and a big backlog of AI orders. That helps explain the strong earnings. However, the stock has already run up and is somewhat extended, leverage is elevated, and insider selling is a concern, so the opportunity is selective, not a broad conviction.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for AI servers boosts infrastructure sales
  • Cloud expansion news increases visibility of future work
  • Big earnings beat supports the company's execution story
  • Extended price action and higher leverage reduce conviction

How it played out

DELL: target reached in 33 days

Lyra published DELL at 392.07 with expected growth of 18% and a target of 461.88. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence servers, cloud expansion, an earnings beat and a large order backlog. It also noted the extended share price, elevated leverage and insider selling as concerns.

The shares reached the target in 33 days. They later peaked at 562.99 on September 9, the final day of the window, for a peak gain of 43.6%. DELL ended the window at 535.25, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On September 1, 2026, Dell reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $47.0 billion, up 58% year over year, and diluted earnings per share of $6.34.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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