Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from June 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 9, 2026 — +8.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$205.47 Published $242.45 Target $223.42 Window close $234.50 Peak
$198.00 – $209.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$205.47Published — price the day we called it
$242.45Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$234.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$223.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+8.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$223.42
last close inside the window, ended September 9, 2026
Peak price
$234.50
peak on September 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$242.45
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$198.00 – $209.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$205.47
published June 11, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a clear leader in the computing systems behind AI, with very strong sales demand, high profit margins, and frequent cloud-related updates that show customers rely on its platform. Those positives make the short-term case constructive, but the stock faces crowded investor positioning, insider selling, and unclear momentum, so it is not risk-free.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing company spending on AI tools keeps server demand strong
  • Cloud reports show customers continue to rely on Nvidia systems
  • Company earns high profits and has a strong balance sheet
  • Recent pullback looks stretched while many investors already own the stock

How it played out

NVDA: rose 14.1% but missed the target

On June 11, Lyra published a short-term case for 18% growth from $205.47. The thesis pointed to spending on artificial intelligence tools, continued reliance on Nvidia systems in cloud reports, high profits, a strong balance sheet, and a recent pullback. It also noted crowded ownership, insider selling, and unclear momentum.

The price peaked at $234.50 on September 4, a 14.1% gain. That stayed below the $242.45 target, which was never reached during the window. NVDA ended the period at $223.42. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose, but the expected gain did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On August 26, NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier. Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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