Track record · closed signal

New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) — closed signal from June 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 8, 2026 — +23.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EDU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$46.39 Published $54.74 Target $57.15 Window close $60.49 Peak
$45.00 – $48.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$46.39Published — price the day we called it
$54.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$60.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$57.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 49 days.

At window close
+23.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+30.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$57.15
last close inside the window, ended September 8, 2026
Peak price
$60.49
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
49

The thesis — published June 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$54.74
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$45.00 – $48.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$46.39
published June 10, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

New Oriental looks like a possible rebound play: sales and fundamentals show momentum and the company has plenty of cash, but recent reports that some big funds sold or cut holdings are a clear warning. China policy uncertainty and a missed quarterly result make the setup fragile, so any move higher should be monitored over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Strong cash position helps the company handle pressure from big investors selling
  • Recovering demand for education services provides a steady business boost
  • Large fund reductions create negative investor sentiment around the stock
  • Price has fallen enough to allow a cautious, monitored recovery opportunity

How it played out

EDU: target reached in 49 days

Lyra published EDU as a cautious rebound from 46.39, with 18% expected growth over three months. The thesis pointed to recovering demand for education services, strong sales and fundamentals, and a strong cash position. It also flagged fund reductions, negative investor sentiment, policy uncertainty, and a missed quarterly result as risks.

Inside the window, EDU reached the 54.74 target in 49 days. It later peaked at 60.49 on August 3, a 30.4% gain from publication. The stock ended the window at 57.15, still above the target. The published rebound thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On July 29, 2026, New Oriental reported that fourth-quarter net revenue rose 23.0% year over year to $1,529.5 million. It also reported operating income of $85.8 million, compared with an operating loss of $8.7 million in the prior-year period.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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