Track record · closed signal

New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) — closed signal from June 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 8, 2026 — +23.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EDU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$46.39 Published $54.74 Target $57.15 Window close $60.49 Peak
$45.00 – $48.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$46.39Published — price the day we called it
$54.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$60.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$57.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 49 days.

At window close
+23.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+30.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$57.15
last close inside the window, ended September 8, 2026
Peak price
$60.49
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
49

The thesis — published June 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$54.74
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$45.00 – $48.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$46.39
published June 10, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

New Oriental looks like a possible rebound play: sales and fundamentals show momentum and the company has plenty of cash, but recent reports that some big funds sold or cut holdings are a clear warning. China policy uncertainty and a missed quarterly result make the setup fragile, so any move higher should be monitored over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Strong cash position helps the company handle pressure from big investors selling
  • Recovering demand for education services provides a steady business boost
  • Large fund reductions create negative investor sentiment around the stock
  • Price has fallen enough to allow a cautious, monitored recovery opportunity

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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