Track record · closed signal

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) — closed signal from June 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 8, 2026 — +94% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$6.60 – $7.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$7.04Published — price the day we called it

$8.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close

+94%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+98.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.66

last close inside the window, ended September 8, 2026

Peak price

$14.00

peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 10, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$8.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$6.60 – $7.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$7.04

published June 10, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Aveanna looks interesting because it keeps beating earnings and just bought Family First Homecare, which makes the company bigger in home-based care. Demand for care at home should help results. But the company carries a lot of debt and its stock can swing widely, so gains are possible but not guaranteed while integration and balance-sheet risk remain.

Primary drivers

Acquisition of Family First boosts size in home-based care
Consistent earnings results point to improving operations
Valuation is low, offering upside if debt stays under control
Growing demand for home-health services supports revenue

How it played out

AVAH: target reached in 14 days and exceeded

Lyra published AVAH at $7.04 with a short-term target of $8.59 and expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to the Family First acquisition, consistent earnings results, a low valuation if debt stayed under control, and demand for home-based care. It also noted debt and integration risk.

The shares reached the $8.59 target in 14 days. They later peaked at $14 on August 27, a 98.9% gain, and ended the window at $13.66 on September 8. The target was reached quickly, the peak was well above it, and the closing price remained above it. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On August 13, Aveanna reported second-quarter revenue of $670.5 million and raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. On August 20, selling stockholders launched a secondary offering of 15,000,000 shares. Aveanna did not offer shares or receive proceeds.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AVAH signals