Track record · closed signal

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) — closed signal from June 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 8, 2026 — +94% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$7.04 Published $8.59 Target $13.66 Window close $14.00 Peak
$6.60 – $7.10Entry zone — fair-value band
$7.04Published — price the day we called it
$8.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$13.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close
+94%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+98.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$13.66
last close inside the window, ended September 8, 2026
Peak price
$14.00
peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
14

The thesis — published June 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$8.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$6.60 – $7.10
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$7.04
published June 10, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Aveanna looks interesting because it keeps beating earnings and just bought Family First Homecare, which makes the company bigger in home-based care. Demand for care at home should help results. But the company carries a lot of debt and its stock can swing widely, so gains are possible but not guaranteed while integration and balance-sheet risk remain.

Primary drivers

  • Acquisition of Family First boosts size in home-based care
  • Consistent earnings results point to improving operations
  • Valuation is low, offering upside if debt stays under control
  • Growing demand for home-health services supports revenue

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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