Track record · closed signal

SM Energy Co (SM) — closed signal from June 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 8, 2026 — +18.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$31.78 Published $36.97 Target $37.76 Window close $38.71 Peak
$30.39 – $31.87Entry zone — fair-value band
$31.78Published — price the day we called it
$36.97Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$37.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 71 days.

At window close
+18.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+21.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$37.76
last close inside the window, ended September 8, 2026
Peak price
$38.71
peak on September 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
71

The thesis — published June 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$36.97
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$30.39 – $31.87
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$31.78
published June 10, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

SM Energy is a traditional oil and gas producer that recently reported much stronger sales, but its stock has swung sharply on oil-related headlines. The company looks cheap enough to justify interest, yet high debt, thin profit margins, and uneven results make it risky. A sustained rebound likely needs steady oil prices and consistent operational follow-through.

Primary drivers

  • Latest report showed sales more than doubled compared to last year and momentum
  • Energy market swings offer a different return pattern than tech-heavy stocks
  • Steady oil prices would help support a short-term recovery in the stock
  • High debt and weak margins reduce confidence in sustained gains

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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