Track record · closed signal

Flywire Corp (FLYW) — closed signal from June 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 8, 2026 — +25.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FLYW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.28 Published $17.14 Target $17.97 Window close $19.73 Peak
$13.50 – $14.60Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.28Published — price the day we called it
$17.14Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$17.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

At window close
+25.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+38.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$17.97
last close inside the window, ended September 8, 2026
Peak price
$19.73
peak on August 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
15

The thesis — published June 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$17.14
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$13.50 – $14.60
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.28
published June 10, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Flywire is a software company handling complex, cross-border payments. It has lots of cash and renewed research attention, which supports the growth story. A director sold shares, which weakens the near-term signal, and price action hasn't clearly turned up. For the next three months, outcomes depend on steady payment volumes, controlled spending, and stronger buying activity after a deep pullback.

Primary drivers

  • Cross-border payments keep demand for its software strong
  • A large cash balance lowers the risk of funding problems
  • New value-focused research may bring investor interest back
  • Insider share sale and light buying activity reduce near-term confidence

How it played out

FLYW: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published FLYW at $14.28 on June 10 and expected 20% growth over the next three months. The thesis pointed to demand for cross-border payment software, a large cash balance, and renewed research interest. It also cited an insider share sale and light buying activity as reasons for lower near-term confidence.

The stock reached the $17.14 target in 15 days. It later peaked at $19.73 on August 24, a gain of 38.2%. FLYW ended the window at $17.97 on September 8, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated growth expectation.

What happened during the window

On August 4, Flywire reported second-quarter revenue growth of 27.2% and payment-volume growth of 38.2%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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