Track record · closed signal

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) — closed signal from June 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 7, 2026 — +100.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$6.78 Published $7.73 Target $13.58 Window close $14.00 Peak
$6.40 – $6.90Entry zone — fair-value band
$6.78Published — price the day we called it
$7.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$13.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close
+100.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+106.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$13.58
last close inside the window, ended September 7, 2026
Peak price
$14.00
peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
8

The thesis — published June 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$7.73
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$6.40 – $6.90
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$6.78
published June 9, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Aveanna is a higher-risk chance to benefit from a recovery. Buying a smaller home-health company and raising revenue guidance give a clear reason to expect improvement, and recent results show progress from a low valuation. Major risks are high debt, limited stock liquidity, and fragile market interest, so short-term outcomes are uncertain.

Primary drivers

  • Acquisition increases company size and scale
  • Higher guidance makes future results clearer
  • Recent results show the turnaround is happening
  • High debt and thin trading raise downside risk

How it played out

AVAH: target reached in 8 days, peak hit $14

Lyra published AVAH at $6.78 with an expected gain of 14% and a $7.73 target. The thesis pointed to a smaller home-health acquisition, higher revenue guidance, recent operating progress, and a low valuation. It also cited high debt, thin trading, and fragile market interest as risks.

The shares reached the target in 8 days. They later peaked at $14 on August 27, a gain of 106.5%. AVAH ended the window at $13.58, still well above the target. The thesis played out and the measured result exceeded its stated expectation.

What happened during the window

On August 13, 2026, Aveanna reported second-quarter revenue of $670.5 million, up 13.7% from the prior-year period, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to more than $2.68 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AVAH signals