Track record · closed signal

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) — closed signal from June 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 7, 2026 — +100.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$6.78 Published $7.73 Target $13.58 Window close $14.00 Peak
$6.40 – $6.90Entry zone — fair-value band
$6.78Published — price the day we called it
$7.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$13.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close
+100.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+106.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$13.58
last close inside the window, ended September 7, 2026
Peak price
$14.00
peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
8

The thesis — published June 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$7.73
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$6.40 – $6.90
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$6.78
published June 9, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Aveanna is a higher-risk chance to benefit from a recovery. Buying a smaller home-health company and raising revenue guidance give a clear reason to expect improvement, and recent results show progress from a low valuation. Major risks are high debt, limited stock liquidity, and fragile market interest, so short-term outcomes are uncertain.

Primary drivers

  • Acquisition increases company size and scale
  • Higher guidance makes future results clearer
  • Recent results show the turnaround is happening
  • High debt and thin trading raise downside risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AVAH signals