Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from June 9, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 7, 2026 — -8.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$370.53 Published $414.99 Target $338.46 Window close $384.48 Peak
$360.00 – $374.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$370.53Published — price the day we called it
$414.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$338.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 32% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-8.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$338.46
last close inside the window, ended September 7, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$414.99
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$360.00 – $374.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$370.53
published June 9, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet runs search, video, cloud, ads, and AI tools that keep making money and winning users. Recent news about Gemini shows more people using its AI, which helps the product story. Shares have pulled back into a cheaper area, but short-term buying strength is mixed. Solid profits and lots of cash make the company more resilient if interest in AI becomes more selective.

Primary drivers

  • More people using Gemini helps the AI adoption story
  • Search, YouTube, and cloud keep generating steady cash
  • Strong recent results show healthy business execution
  • Price pullback creates a calmer short-term entry opportunity

How it played out

GOOGL: the thesis missed its target

Lyra published a short-term thesis on 2026-06-09, with GOOGL at $370.53 and expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to wider Gemini use, steady cash from Search, YouTube, and cloud, healthy business execution, and a pullback into the $360 to $374 entry zone.

During the window, GOOGL peaked at $384.48 on 2026-08-05, a gain of 3.8%. It stayed below the $414.99 target and never reached it. The shares ended at $338.46 on 2026-09-07. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported that second-quarter revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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