Track record · closed signal

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) — closed signal from June 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 6, 2026 — +101.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVAH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$6.25 – $6.85Entry zone — fair-value band

$6.73Published — price the day we called it

$8.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$14.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$13.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

At window close

+101.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+108.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$13.58

last close inside the window, ended September 6, 2026

Peak price

$14.00

peak on August 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$8.07

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$6.25 – $6.85

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$6.73

published June 8, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Aveanna is a risky healthcare watch but the path to a positive move is visible. Acquisition news, clearer guidance, and an upgrade have attracted attention. The company trades cheaply, has a history of making earnings, and benefits from steady demand for home health services. High debt and integration work make short-term caution sensible.

Primary drivers

Acquisition expands where services are offered
New guidance creates a near-term event
Consistent earnings build credibility
High debt and integration add risk

How it played out

AVAH: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published AVAH at $6.73 with an expected gain of 20%. The thesis pointed to an acquisition that expanded the service footprint, new guidance, consistent earnings, and steady demand for home health services. It also identified high debt and integration work as short-term risks.

The shares reached the $8.07 target in 15 days. They later peaked at $14 on August 27, a gain of 108.2% from the published price. AVAH ended the window at $13.58, still above the target. The thesis played out and the expected move was surpassed.

What happened during the window

On August 13, Aveanna reported second-quarter revenue of $670.5 million and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to more than $2.68 billion. On August 20, the company announced that selling stockholders had priced an offering of 15,000,000 shares at $11.75 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AVAH signals