Track record · closed signal

Walt Disney Company (DIS) — closed signal from June 8, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 6, 2026 — +7.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

DIS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$97.92 Published $112.73 Target $105.31 Window close $111.87 Peak
$93.56 – $98.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$97.92Published — price the day we called it
$112.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$111.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$105.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+7.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$105.31
last close inside the window, ended September 6, 2026
Peak price
$111.87
peak on August 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$112.73
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$93.56 – $98.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$97.92
published June 8, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Disney is being watched as a recovery candidate: parks and movie results can lift sentiment after recent weakness. Streaming performance and the company's debt level create uncertainty, so the case is selective. Because shares were oversold, a modest rebound over the next 0-3 months is plausible if consumers keep spending and new content draws viewers.

Primary drivers

  • Strong movie results can quickly improve sentiment
  • Recovery in parks and media drives the main upside
  • Streaming must show steady progress to justify higher value
  • High debt and uneven growth limit overall conviction

How it played out

DIS: 14.2% peak gain fell short of the target

Lyra published DIS as a short-term recovery thesis from $97.92, with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to movie results, a recovery in parks and media, and steady streaming progress. It also cited debt and uneven growth as limits on conviction.

The stock rose to a peak of $111.87 on August 24, a gain of 14.2%. It stayed below the $112.73 target and never reached it during the window. DIS ended at $105.31 on September 6. The rebound thesis largely played out, but the stated target was missed.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, Disney reported fiscal third-quarter results. It said global guests grew 4% from a year earlier and Toy Story 5 had passed $1 billion at the global box office.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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