Track record · closed signal

Maplebear Inc. (CART) — closed signal from June 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 6, 2026 — +20.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CART price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$42.31 Published $48.65 Target $51.07 Window close $52.68 Peak
$40.00 – $42.75Entry zone — fair-value band
$42.31Published — price the day we called it
$48.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$52.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$51.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close
+20.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+24.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$51.07
last close inside the window, ended September 6, 2026
Peak price
$52.68
peak on September 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
21

The thesis — published June 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$48.65
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$40.00 – $42.75
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$42.31
published June 8, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Instacart stands out because it has a healthy balance sheet, recent results improved, and new partnerships (Cash App Pay, Vida Health) expand how shoppers can use the service. The main risk is FTC scrutiny of fees. If regulators stay quiet, grocery demand holds, and partnerships keep progressing, modest upside over the next 0-3 months is plausible.

Primary drivers

  • New payment options can make checkout smoother and increase sales
  • Health partnership creates shopping linked to nutrition and prescriptions
  • A strong cash position helps weather slow periods or setbacks
  • Regulatory review of fees is the main risk to the plan

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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