Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Limited (TIGR) — closed signal from August 11, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 9, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.02 Published $12.52 Target $10.26 Window close $13.55 Peak
$9.70 – $10.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.02Published — price the day we called it
$12.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 11 days.

Peak price
$13.55
peak on August 25, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+35.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$10.26
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
11
Window
August 11, 2025 – November 9, 2025

The thesis — published August 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$12.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$9.70 – $10.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.02
published August 11, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UP Fintech looks strong on both business results and investor mood. Citi raised it to Buy with a $14 target tied to Hong Kong allowing more crypto activity, and Q1 sales rose 55% compared to last year. Buyers seem to be returning and the recent average price is turning up. With plenty of cash in markets, more retail interest and broad products could lift shares over the next 3 months, though rule changes and crypto swings could slow it.

Primary drivers

  • Citi raised its rating, helped by the firm's crypto push in Hong Kong
  • Sales are rising fast while the stock still looks reasonably priced
  • Strong investor mood could bring in more buyers than usual in the coming weeks
  • Crypto-friendly steps in Asia could boost customer demand this year

How it played out

TIGR: target reached in 11 days

Lyra published TIGR at $10.02 on 2025-08-11 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to Citi's upgrade tied to Hong Kong crypto activity, Q1 sales rising 55% from last year, stronger investor mood, returning buyers, and broader retail interest. The expected target was $12.52.

Inside the window, TIGR reached the target. The stock peaked at $13.55 on 2025-08-25, with a peak gain of 35.2%. It took 11 days to get there. By 2025-11-09, it ended at $10.26. The published upside thesis played out, even though the later close gave back much of the move.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-27, UP Fintech reported second-quarter earnings of nearly $0.23 per share and revenue of $138.7 million. The company also reported 39,800 new customers in the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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