Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from June 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 3, 2026 — +1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$72.04 Published $79.12 Target $72.73 Window close $81.22 Peak
$69.03 – $71.72Entry zone — fair-value band
$72.04Published — price the day we called it
$79.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$81.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$72.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 41 days.

At window close
+1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$72.73
last close inside the window, ended September 3, 2026
Peak price
$81.22
peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
41

The thesis — published June 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$79.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$69.03 – $71.72
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$72.04
published June 5, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Agree Realty is primarily a steady income stock that owns single-tenant retail properties leased long term. It pays monthly dividends and has shown gradual operating growth. Recent coverage and insider buying make the income story more credible, but sensitivity to interest rates, debt levels and low trading volume limit how quickly price can rise.

Primary drivers

  • Monthly payouts appeal to income-focused investors seeking steady cash
  • Long-term leases create predictable rental income streams
  • Insiders buying shares supports confidence in the business
  • Higher interest costs and debt levels reduce upside in the near term

How it played out

ADC: target reached in 41 days

On June 5, 2026, Lyra published a short-term thesis for ADC at 72.04, with expected growth of 11%. The thesis pointed to monthly dividends, predictable rental income from long-term leases, and insider buying. It also identified higher interest costs, debt levels, and low trading volume as limits on near-term upside.

Inside the window, ADC reached the 79.12 target in 41 days. It later peaked at 81.22 on July 29, 2026, a gain of 12.8%. The price then fell to 72.73 by September 3, 2026. The thesis played out, because the target was reached within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 30, 2026, Agree Realty reported second-quarter results and raised its 2026 investment guidance to $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion. It also raised its 2026 AFFO per-share guidance to $4.57 to $4.59.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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