Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from June 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 3, 2026 — -7.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$370.08 Published $421.64 Target $342.26 Window close $384.48 Peak
$359.57 – $373.55Entry zone — fair-value band
$370.08Published — price the day we called it
$421.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$384.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$342.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-7.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$342.26
last close inside the window, ended September 3, 2026
Peak price
$384.48
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$421.64
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$359.57 – $373.55
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$370.08
published June 5, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet's businesses-Search, YouTube and Cloud-still generate steady profits, and recent AI governance discussion at Google Cloud Next highlights its role in enterprise AI. Many investors are cautious, shown by record cash parked in money-market funds. Regulatory scrutiny, insider selling and short-term weak price action limit conviction near term.

Primary drivers

  • Search and YouTube continue to produce steady profits and cash
  • Google Cloud keeps the company relevant in enterprise AI efforts
  • A very large cash balance gives the company optionality and safety
  • Regulatory pressure and AI-related disruption reduce near-term certainty

How it played out

GOOGL: the 14% thesis missed its target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 14% growth from a price of $370.08. The thesis pointed to steady profits and cash from Search and YouTube, Google Cloud's role in enterprise artificial intelligence, and a large cash balance. It also cited regulatory pressure, disruption, insider selling, and weak price action as limits on conviction.

GOOGL rose to a peak of $384.48 on August 5, a gain of 3.9%. It never reached the $421.64 target during the window. By September 3, it had fallen to $342.26. The published growth thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On July 22, Alphabet reported that second-quarter revenue grew 24% year over year and Cloud revenue grew 82%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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