Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc (MA) — closed signal from June 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 3, 2026 — +20% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$488.24 Published $571.24 Target $585.71 Window close $601.23 Peak
$480.00 – $495.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$488.24Published — price the day we called it
$571.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$601.23Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$585.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 55 days.

At window close
+20%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+23.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$585.71
last close inside the window, ended September 3, 2026
Peak price
$601.23
peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
55

The thesis — published June 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$571.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$480.00 – $495.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$488.24
published June 5, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard is a strong payments company that keeps making money as people use cards and digital payments. New reports about a shared stablecoin settlement platform could help Mastercard stay important as payment systems change. Short-term price action looks uncertain, so gains over the next few months are possible but not clearly strong.

Primary drivers

  • Global card and digital payment use keeps transaction volume rising
  • Stablecoin settlement talk could help Mastercard stay central to payments
  • High profit margins support steady cash generation and investment
  • Strong brand and bank ties make competition harder against Mastercard

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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