Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from August 11, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 9, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 11, 2025
Texas Instruments is a steadier chip company that can hold up in rough markets and may be near a bounce. Recent signals suggest a window for recovery, buyer interest is healthy, and Apple's $600B plan to build more in the U.S. supports local chip makers. Its broad product lineup and 2.9% dividend help limit downside. Over the next three months, clearing excess inventory could guide a careful move back toward its recent high range.
Primary drivers
- Price looks washed out, increasing chances of a short-term upward bounce
- Investor mood is constructive, and a 2.9% dividend adds a cushion
- Big new U.S. factory spending, like Apple's plan, can lift local chip supply
- Sells many everyday chips to cars, factories, and devices, spreading risk
How it played out
TXN: the target was not reached
Lyra published TXN at $186.37 on 2025-08-11 with expected growth of 16%. The target was $214.27. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price setup, constructive investor mood, a 2.9% dividend, U.S. factory spending tied to Apple, and a broad chip lineup across cars, factories, and devices.
Inside the window from 2025-08-11 to 2025-11-09, TXN rose to $207.24 on 2025-08-22, a peak gain of 11.2%. It stayed below the target. The stock ended at $160.55. The thesis partly played out early, then missed by the close.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, Texas Instruments reported September-quarter earnings of $1.48 a share on sales of $4.74 billion and gave December-quarter guidance of $1.26 a share on sales of $4.4 billion, based on the midpoint cited by Investor's Business Daily.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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