Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from August 11, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 9, 2025 — -13.9% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 11, 2025
Texas Instruments is a steadier chip company that can hold up in rough markets and may be near a bounce. Recent signals suggest a window for recovery, buyer interest is healthy, and Apple's $600B plan to build more in the U.S. supports local chip makers. Its broad product lineup and 2.9% dividend help limit downside. Over the next three months, clearing excess inventory could guide a careful move back toward its recent high range.
Primary drivers
- Price looks washed out, increasing chances of a short-term upward bounce
- Investor mood is constructive, and a 2.9% dividend adds a cushion
- Big new U.S. factory spending, like Apple's plan, can lift local chip supply
- Sells many everyday chips to cars, factories, and devices, spreading risk
How it played out
TXN: the target was not reached
Lyra published TXN at $186.37 on 2025-08-11 with expected growth of 16%. The target was $214.27. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price setup, constructive investor mood, a 2.9% dividend, U.S. factory spending tied to Apple, and a broad chip lineup across cars, factories, and devices.
Inside the window from 2025-08-11 to 2025-11-09, TXN rose to $207.24 on 2025-08-22, a peak gain of 11.2%. It stayed below the target. The stock ended at $160.55. The thesis partly played out early, then missed by the close.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-21, Texas Instruments reported September-quarter earnings of $1.48 a share on sales of $4.74 billion and gave December-quarter guidance of $1.26 a share on sales of $4.4 billion, based on the midpoint cited by Investor's Business Daily.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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