Track record · closed signal

Universal Health Services Inc (UHS) — closed signal from June 5, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 3, 2026 — +15.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UHS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$139.61 – $148.59Entry zone — fair-value band

$146.58Published — price the day we called it

$180.04Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$179.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$169.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+15.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$169.21

last close inside the window, ended September 3, 2026

Peak price

$179.73

peak on August 26, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 5, 2026

Predicted growth

+23%

over the measurement window

Target price

$180.04

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$139.61 – $148.59

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$146.58

published June 5, 2026

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Universal Health Services looks cheap relative to its cash-making hospitals and behavioral health units. Recent approvals and a new physician arrangement give clear reasons the company could refocus and improve results. Short-term trading has been weak, so the chance of a rebound exists, but debt levels and high staffing costs mean caution is still warranted.

Primary drivers

Hospitals and behavioral care stay in steady demand, defensive in downturns
Talkspace approval provides a clear, company-specific boost
George Washington deal can help stabilize doctor operations and workflows
Low valuation gives some protection if the business executes as planned

How it played out

UHS: the thesis nearly played out, but target was missed

Lyra published UHS at $146.58 with expected growth of 23% and a $180.04 target. The thesis pointed to steady hospital and behavioral care demand, the Talkspace approval, the George Washington physician arrangement, and a low valuation. It also cited debt and staffing costs as risks.

The stock rose to $179.73 on August 26, a peak gain of 22.6%. It stayed below the target throughout the window, then ended at $169.21 on September 3. The expected rebound largely occurred, but the published target was never reached. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 27, Universal Health Services reported second-quarter net revenue of $4.638 billion, up 8.3% from the prior-year quarter, and revised its 2026 forecast. On August 17, the company completed its acquisition of Talkspace.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All UHS signals