Track record · closed signal

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — +1.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$69.03 – $71.48Entry zone — fair-value band

$71.80Published — price the day we called it

$77.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$81.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$72.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

At window close

+1.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$72.63

last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026

Peak price

$81.22

peak on July 29, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$77.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$69.03 – $71.48

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$71.80

published June 4, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Agree Realty is mainly a property owner that leases stores to retailers and pays monthly dividends. It looks attractive as a defensive income trade because shares are oversold and insiders have bought, but trading volume is very light and the stock reacts to interest rates. The setup reads as income-backed stabilization rather than a growth story.

Primary drivers

Monthly dividends attract investors seeking steady income
Single-tenant leases create predictable rental cash flow
Insider buying signals internal confidence and alignment
Screening shows the REIT looks favorable versus peers

How it played out

ADC: target reached in 33 days

Lyra published a defensive income thesis with 9% expected growth. The thesis pointed to monthly dividends, predictable rent from single-tenant leases, insider buying and favorable peer screening. It described the setup as income-backed stabilization, while noting light trading volume and sensitivity to interest rates.

ADC reached the 77.44 target in 33 days. It later peaked at 81.22 on July 29, a 13.1% gain, before ending the window at 72.63. The closing price gave back much of the rise, but the published target was reached within the window. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 30, Agree Realty reported second-quarter results and raised its 2026 investment guidance to $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion. On August 11, the company declared a monthly common dividend of $0.267 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ADC signals