Track record · closed signal

Mastercard Inc (MA) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — +21.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$485.32 Published $572.67 Target $588.14 Window close $601.23 Peak
$475.00 – $490.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$485.32Published — price the day we called it
$572.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$601.23Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$588.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 56 days.

At window close
+21.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+23.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$588.14
last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026
Peak price
$601.23
peak on August 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
56

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$572.67
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$475.00 – $490.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$485.32
published June 4, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Mastercard pulled back but the core business remains strong: a profitable payments network with growing digital and cross-border work. New projects-like a shared stablecoin settlement plan and an account-to-account partnership-add practical ways to grow. Price action looks oversold, so the idea is more credible as signs of steady recovery appear rather than on a thin, quick jump.

Primary drivers

  • Shared stablecoin settlement adds new ways to move money
  • Cross-border account-to-account deal expands reach and customers
  • High-margin network business helps earnings hold up
  • Pullback looks cleaner, offering a steadier tactical entry

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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