Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — -7.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$361.20 Published $400.69 Target $333.78 Window close $381.81 Peak
$344.59 – $364.56Entry zone — fair-value band
$361.20Published — price the day we called it
$400.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$381.81Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$333.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-7.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+5.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$333.78
last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026
Peak price
$381.81
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$400.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$344.59 – $364.56
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$361.20
published June 4, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet combines strong core businesses-search, YouTube and cloud-with new moves in internal chip work that could help its AI infrastructure. The stock fell sharply and trading activity rose, but price momentum is still weak and market sentiment has cooled. Company execution keeps the rebound possible, though clear confirmation of a recovery is not yet present.

Primary drivers

  • Moves in AI infrastructure could strengthen cloud and search businesses
  • Developing internal chips could reduce reliance on outside suppliers
  • Still a market leader among large technology companies
  • Recent price drop creates a chance for a bounce if stability returns

How it played out

GOOG: the 11% target was never reached

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis at $361.20, with expected growth of 11% and a $400.69 target. The thesis pointed to search, YouTube and cloud, internal chip development, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and the chance of a bounce after the recent price drop. It also noted weak momentum and cooler market sentiment.

The shares rose to a $381.81 peak on August 5, a gain of 5.7%. That stayed below the $400.69 target, which was never reached. GOOG ended the window at $333.78 on September 2, below its publication price. The thesis partially played out during the rise, but the expected rebound did not hold.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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